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Friday, April 25, 2008

Fellow Blogger Seeks P2P Loan on Prosper

Business & Personal Loans. Great Rates. Prosper.

P2P-Loans.com recently came accross the following listing on Prosper from a fellow blogger (Deepmarket.com) who is seeking a Prosper personal loan to consolidate some debt and begin the process of improving his finances. You can review his loan request for yourself on Prosper, but here is my quick and dirty analysis of this request:

1) The borrower has shown a strong desire to reduce his debt load, which was accumulated durning an entrepreneurial jaunt, and has returned to the "rat race" at a $100k+ salary. His company is a very strong one that focuses on government contract work (we all know that economic slowdowns don't hurt the government, so this job should be pretty safe). The borrower also provides some personal information about himself on his blog, which is comforting to a lender.

2) The borrower sought out the help of a Prosper expert, RateLadder, who is his group leader. RateLadder has been around Prosper for many moons and brings a lot of expertise to the table. While RateLadder doesn't personally know this borrower, his bid and endorsement does improve this listing on the margin.

3) Coverage - this borrower has just enough income to cover his monthly expenses with his salaried position. He also earns some extra cash through his blog (anywhere from $60 per month to $900 per month according to his listing). This income should be available to support any unexpected expenses as well as provide capital to repay revolving debt more quickly. Based on my math, this borrower should be able to cover the new Prosper payment with his salary alone and the blog income will provide a small cushion.

4) $25,000 request - this is a large loan amount to repay fully in a short 3 years (the term of a Prosper personal loan). With an interest rate of 25.45%, that equates to a $1,000 per month payment, which is large. Any bump in the road means that this borrower may choose not to repay this loan (in my experience, borrowers do not make partial payments, but rather stop paying entirely). Lenders can take some comfort in the fact that this borrower has a "public" personality via his blog, thus the public shaming he'd take by being late could be a nice incentive for him to make this loan his #1 priority.

So, what's the sum total of my analysis? The borrower is clearly an intelligent person with a great job in a high-demand area (e.g. if he does lose his job, his skills are in high demand). While the leverage is high, the risk of default of mitigated by the high interest rate being offered (25%+ at the start, but this could get bid down through the course of the auction). As part of a diversified Prosper portfolio, P2P-Loans.com does believe this is a loan worth bidding on and I will support it with a small bid once funds clear my Prosper account. If you are new to Prosper, you can get $25 of free cash for joining Prosper and winning a $50 bid on this loan. That makes it a no-brainer in my opinion.

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2 Comments:

  • At April 30, 2008 8:41 PM , Anonymous Phil said...

    Great analysis. I've been a borrower and a lender to Propser, but I've been away for a little and this is the first example I've seen of 3rd party analysis. Good on ya.

    I see his loan as a little riskier than you do, though. He has $75K in outstanding creidt card, and at best he might succeed at replacing a third of it with debt at a lower (Prosper) rate. The savings from that are de minimus, and not enough to make a fundamental difference in this fellow's plight. His monthly payments are - in all liklihood - the mimimum payments which means that he'll still be paying off his $50,000 credit card balance 50 years from now. And givem how muged up his balance sheet is, I'm betting that he's holding an adjustable rate mortgage on that condo of his, for which he's already paying $2700/mo. If those payments increase (or if the price of gas goes up any more, for God's sake!) he's got no margin for error whatsoever.

    I'll probably take a pass on this one.

     
  • At May 2, 2008 9:29 AM , Anonymous P2P-Loans.com said...

    Hi, Phil. Thanks for your post. I do agree that this loan comes with some risk, but that risk is offset by a very high interest rate (in my opinion). While this loan certainly has a higher risk of default relative to someone with better coverage ratios and disposable income, I do believe this loan is worth bidding on at the high rate being offered (only in a small amount, however). Per my Prosper lending experience, it is much more important to spread your bets among many loans than to "fall in love" with any one loan (and bid too much money on it). Thanks again and I hope you'll visit us again soon. I plan to do more independent analysis of interesting loans that I see in the future.

    -P2P-Loans.com

     

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