Porkulous or Stimulus (Update)

Earlier this year (February to be exact), I wrote a piece (check it out here) about the "stimulous" plan that the newly inaugurated Obama administration crammed...er...passed into law. Needless to say, I cast a skeptical eye on the bill as it simply had way too much government waste included in it AND the money did not flow fast enough to give the economy the jolt it desparately needed. It is now becoming even more clear that the Obama administration did not pass the best bill possible as the economy remains in the tank, unemployement continues to increase (and the rate of unemployment is rapidly approaching double digits) and there is some loose talk of yet another "stimulous" plan (seriously, this is no joke)! Check out the recent interview on CNBC with Art Cashin of UBS ("stimulous is part Hoax..." WOW!):

To shed a bit more light on this, Joe Biden recently admitted that he and Obama "mis-read" how bad the economy was (here is one of the many news stories on the topic). It's somewhat laughable that he can suggest this and get away with it! Don't you recall all of the speeches about how this was the worst economy since the Great Depression (hard to say they mis-read it, eh)? Here's one example from a January 2009 speech from Obama (read the entire speech via the link):

"Throughout America’s history, there have been some years that simply rolled into the next without much notice or fanfare. Then there are the years that come along once in a generation – the kind that mark a clean break from a troubled past, and set a new course for our nation. This is one of those years. We start 2009 in the midst of a crisis unlike any we have seen in our lifetime..."

That sounds pretty dire! Well, the economy IS pretty bad (it's at least as bad as the early 80's and maybe worse than that) and I just don't buy that they "mis-read" it when, speech after speech, Obama talked about the "worst economy since the Great Depression." I think it's more likely that Biden and the Obama administration continue to try convince the American people that none of this is their fault even after they've ramped up government spending and passed an enormous spending bill with a "Stimulous" title on it. To be fair, they did inherit a pretty lousy situation and things were clearly getting worse when he took office. But, the American people are tiring of the blame game (Obama's approval rating is down to the low 50% range when it was in the mid to upper 60% range when he took office) and the ineffectual nature of Obama's economic proposals to date (trends in his approval rating prove this out - click here for Rasmussen data).

We were sold this "stimulous" package on the promise that it was necessary to turn things around and that it would bring us out of a tailspin. Unfortunately, it now appears that we were sold a bill of goods (don't say I didn't warn you in the February 2009 blog post).

I sincerely hope that Obama will refocus on what really matters right now (HINT: "IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID!!!") and drop plans for massive spending on healthcare and taxes green house gases (aka Cap and Trade). Making the case that we can't fix the economy unless we fix healthcare and the environment just doesn't make any sense. Let's get this economy going BEFORE dealing with these other issues. After all, if the economy (aka current and future tax base) continues to shrink, we definitely won't be able to afford any of these other initiatives.

What happened to personal accountability?

The $700 billion bailout package has raised a lot of eyebrows on Main Street. After all, isn't it Wall Street's fault for making all these risky investments that went bad? If so, why on earth would the government want to use taxpayer money to bail them out? Well, I've listened to a lot of radio commentary and read a whole host of opinons and articles on the topic and I am disheartened by one key thing that is missing in all of these pieces; where is the personal accountability in all of this?

Let me make this a bit more clear for you if you are having trouble following me. If you were walking down the street and a drug dealer popped out and offered you some drugs for free, would you take them? You know it's bad for you even if it is free. You know this decision is not likely to have a good outcome for you, but you decide to give it a shot anyway because everyone else is doing it and the dealer tells you it's good for you and you can handle it.

Is it the dealer's fault that you decided to take something you knew was bad for you? Now we all know that the dealer is a bad guy and should be punished for breaking the law and dealing drugs. But, aren't you also somehwat responsible for your bad choice? Shouldn't you shoulder some of the blame?

By now, you know where I am going with this. Sketchy mortgage brokers and slick Wall Street types told you that you could afford that $500,000 house even though you had not saved for your down payment and you only made $50,000 per year. After all, all your friends and neighbors were doing it, right? Even though it was available to you, you knew it did not make sense that you could get such a loan. But, you took it anyway. Then, when your house rose to $700,000 in value, another slick mortgage broker told you take take a second mortgage for $200,000 so you could put in a pool, go on that nice vacation and buy that expensive car. Or maybe you could just refinance your first mortgage and "Pick Your Payment" so that you could cover the new GIGANTIC mortgage (at least for 12-24 months until the payment adjusted). Hey, you deserve it and everyone else is doing it. Never mind that you couldn't affored the first mortgage payment much less the second mortgage payment.

Now that all of these loans are going bad (not really a shocker, by the way), banks and mortgage companies are going under and the securities issued to allow these silly loans are defaulting, people are trying to blame everyone but themselves. Greedy CEOs, lying mortgage brokers, etc. are the only ones to blame. It's not my fault that my payments are TWICE AS MUCH as my income!!

Why don't people start to take a little responsibility for their decisions and actions. Sure, there are plenty of cases of legitimate fraud, lying, cheating and stealing and the corporations that profited from all of this mess should also be severely punished. But, if that were the only problem, we would not be in this mess. The bottom line is that Americans have spent more than we make for over a decade now (think negative savings rate) and it is catching up to us. So, here is who I blame (in my opinion):

1) Individuals: if you are not diligent enough to read your own loan documents and understand them, then you probably shouldn't be taking on the debt required to buy a house, car, etc. While the small print is mind numbing for sure, the Truth in Lending Disclosure is actually pretty easy to read (shows the costs of the loan and your payments over time). If your paycheck was only $2,000 per month, you can't afford a $4,000 per month payment (now or 24 months from now)! It really is that simple! Spend less than you make (that's called saving, by the way) and don't get duped into believing it's OK to do otherwise.

2) Congress/Federal Reserve: The knuckleheads in Congress and the Fed have promoted easy money for so long now that we all believe we are entitled to it. When a number of Congressmen raised the issue that Fannie and Freddie might be a disaster in the making (in 2004 and 2005), most folks in Congress buried their heads in the sand. "We are meeting our housing objectives" (this is code for people that can't afford homes are getting loans for them - this is also known as "subprime" and the initial shoe to drop in this mess). Even Alan Greenspan (who shoulders a good chunk of the blame for his easy money and 1% interest rates) noted that Fannie and Freddie were a potential ticking time bomb. No one in DC listened and now they want to spend $700+ billion to try to fix the problem (I'm skeptical this will work, by the way).

3) Wall Street/Ratings Agencies: We were all convinced that the smart guys on Wall Street had invented a way to make risky borrowers less risky. Somehow, through financial alchemy, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, UBS, etc. all convinced us that you could take a bunch of risky loans, wrap them up into a nice little bow, slap some insurance on them and call them AAA quality. Then, the ratings agencies, who were being paid to provide ratings on these securities (no conflict there), called them "Investment Grade" which allowed pension funds, retail investors and others to buy them up. As if that weren't bad enough, the investment banks et al decided to borrow 30 TIMES their equity capital to buy these toxic securities (for every $1 of capital they had, they would borrow $30 and buy these bad securities). When it came time to borrow more money as loans came do, the investment banks imploded.

So, what can we learn from all of this? First of all, people need to take responsibility for their own decisions and the consequences for those decisions. If you bought more house than you could afford, you have to live with the consequences of that decision. If you are spending more than you make on your credit cards, that too has a consequence for you. Just because you got a great 0% APR offer (think free drugs - see above) that doesn't mean it's a good decision to load that card up. I fear that the government bailout only reaffirms the dangerous and increasingly pervasive cultural phenomenon that individuals are not responsible for their own decisions. If there is always someone to bail you out when you make a bad choice, then is it really all that bad a choice to make in the future? The corollary to this is that good decisions are not rewarded, but rather penalized (think higher taxes). Until we return to the basic economic principals of freedom, individualism and true capitalism, I fear there is going to be a lot of economic pain in our great country.

Housing Crisis Over? Mixed Data Suggests....

P2P-Loans.com has recently noticed a number of smart folks writing about the end of the housing crisis. In two separate articles in the WSJ ("Opinion: The Housing Crisis is Over" and "Is Housing Slump at a Bottom?"). These articles make very valid points with regard to housing starts, low interest rates, etc. What these articles fail to debate in any material fashion is that housing prices relative to disposable income are still extremely high!

This chart from Ned Davis Research (the line graph at the bottom of this page is most relevant) demonstrates that we remain at very high price levels relative to historical data. Ultimately, the value of housing is a function of affordability. When it's all said and done, this is the single most important factor that drives demand for new housing and the price of such housing. For example, the data in the chart suggest that in 2001 (yes, interest rates were in the sub 7% range for 30-year fixed mortgages then as well) the Median New Home Price / Disposable Income ratio was near its 30-year average, which is where it had been for the better part of 15 years. In fact, the ratio had been even lower before that, however this is likely due to the artificially high interest rates of the 1970's and early 1980's.

This dynamic has served to dramatically reduce demand for housing in conjunction with tougher lending standards (fewer buyer approved for new mortgages) and skitish buyers (when will prices stop falling). As a result, housing inventories have spiked to record highs. Accross the US, housing inventories are more than double typical levels, and are as high as 4-5 years worth of inventory (versus a long-term average of 5-6 months) in formerly hot markets such as Florida and California.
According to a recent post at Seeking Alpha, housing inventories are beginning to come down, but remain well above historical averages. Seeking Alpha points out that, at the current sales pace, inventories of new homes will be "back to normal" by the end of 2009. Simply put, we will be in a supply/demand imbalance for the next two years (and this is assuming that the market doesn't overshoot to the downside, which it's been known to do in prior busts - think about when many tech stocks were trading at less than cash value in 2003). The data is similar on the inventories of resales as well. In my estimation, this means we still have a ways to go before calling the end of the housing crisis. I hope I am wrong.

On a side note, the government is trying to push through a MASSIVE bailout program. Generally, when the government makes a move like this, they are too late to the party. Thus, this single fact alone could lead one to believe we are at the end of the housing crisis.

Save More, People! Why is the US savings rate so low?

Just the other day, the government quietly reported (only because the media didn't really give it any play - maybe it has something to do with their retailer advertisers) that the savings rate in the United States hit a new ALL TIME LOW! American's are saving a whopping $2 for every $1,000 of disposable income that they earn. TWO DOLLARS! That's a savings rate of about 0.2%. In no uncertain terms, America has become a spend and consume nation that relies on credit to finance our lavish lifestyles (a special thanks goes out to our kids for agreeing to pay back the $9+ trillion national debt for us). Well, in the spirit of returning back to our roots as a country of savers and investors (just look at the above chart to see that we did used to be a nation of savers), I'm offering a few tips and suggestions on how you might increase your savings rate just a tad:

1) Use your rebate check (thanks again to our kids who are paying for this) to pay down your credit cards - AND DON'T RUN THEM BACK UP. If you pay down $600 or $900 of your credit card debt that is probably costing you 20% in interest, you'll save as much as $200 per year in interest costs! It may even improve your credit score, which could lower your interest rate on other loans you have or need in the future! That'll help cover the increased cost of gas, at least.

2) Let your money work for you by putting your newfound savings in a money market account or a CD. For example, Countrywide is offering a FDIC insured 12-month CD at 4.10%. Of course, only do this if you can't use the cash to pay down your high interest rate credit cards (after all, 20% is much bigger than 4.10%). There are some other high yield ideas at P2P-Loans.com's High Interest site.

3) Refinance your credit card debt. If you have decent credit, why not seek out a low APR (or no APR) credit card to lower your borrowing cost. If you are paying a high credit card rate, take a look at some great credit card options on our Best Credit Card site. Using the 20% interest example, you could open a new account with a 0% APR for 12 months, transfer your balances to this new card (for a fee that is usually 3% up front) and save a whopping 17%! Here's a great offer from American Express that gives you 15 months of 0% APR on purchases and a 4.99% APR on balance transfers. There are a lot of other good offer out there as well. But, don't use this low rate as an excuse to spend more (this is key!). Stay disciplined! If you want to explore other great offers, use P2P-Loans.com's Credit Card Search to find other great offers.

4) Make saving automatic. There are a lot of programs that make saving easy. For example, open a Bank of America checking and savings account and sign up for their "Keep the Change" promotion. You not only get free checking and savings, but you also get $75 of free cash to kick-start your savings plan! Then, whenever you use your Bank of America debit card, they round your purchase up to the next dollar and put the change in your savings account. The interest rate on the savings account is lousy (less than 1%), but you will be saving some money with minimal pain and effort. If you make 30 purchases per month and save an average of $0.50 per purchase from this program, that's $15 per month and $180 per year. BoA will match 5% of that AND you get the $75 sign-up bonus, so that brings you to nearly $265 in savings (plus interest). It's an easy way to get started and it's automatic.

In summary, Americans are not saving enough and it's our responsibility to take care of our own futures. At the current deficit level, our government will not be in a position to bail us out when we run out of money, so SAVE MORE, PEOPLE! Please Digg it up!