Consumers Pile on $15 Billion More Debt in March 2008!

Americans are piling on the debt at an alarming pace while one of our most valuable assets (our homes) is plummeting in value. A recent article from Bloomberg points out that consumer debt levels increased by a whopping $15.3 billion in March 2008, which was substantially more than economists had projected. According to the article:

"Consumers are turning to credit cards after banks tightened standards for home-equity loans and other borrowing. The March figures brought U.S. consumer borrowing in the first quarter to $34 billion, the most since the first three months of 2001, when the economy entered its last official recession."

This is scary for those of you (like P2P-Loans.com) that are invested in Prosper loans. As banks turn away more people, they are likely to pursue alternative financing on sites like Prosper, LendingClub, etc..

America's debt problem has only gotten worse over the years and the current credit crisis may end up being a healthy event in that it will constrict American's ability to keep borrowing (at least for a short time). But, with the weak economy and fewer sources of capital, Prosper lenders beware...

Here's an interesting site that provides a lot of interesting debt-related information. Enjoy! http://mwhodges.home.att.net/nat-debt/debt-nat-a.htm

Fellow Blogger Seeks P2P Loan on Prosper

P2P-Loans.com recently came accross the following listing on Prosper from a fellow blogger (Deepmarket.com) who is seeking a Prosper personal loan to consolidate some debt and begin the process of improving his finances. You can review his loan request for yourself on Prosper, but here is my quick and dirty analysis of this request:

1) The borrower has shown a strong desire to reduce his debt load, which was accumulated durning an entrepreneurial jaunt, and has returned to the "rat race" at a $100k+ salary. His company is a very strong one that focuses on government contract work (we all know that economic slowdowns don't hurt the government, so this job should be pretty safe). The borrower also provides some personal information about himself on his blog, which is comforting to a lender.

2) The borrower sought out the help of a Prosper expert, RateLadder, who is his group leader. RateLadder has been around Prosper for many moons and brings a lot of expertise to the table. While RateLadder doesn't personally know this borrower, his bid and endorsement does improve this listing on the margin.

3) Coverage - this borrower has just enough income to cover his monthly expenses with his salaried position. He also earns some extra cash through his blog (anywhere from $60 per month to $900 per month according to his listing). This income should be available to support any unexpected expenses as well as provide capital to repay revolving debt more quickly. Based on my math, this borrower should be able to cover the new Prosper payment with his salary alone and the blog income will provide a small cushion.

4) $25,000 request - this is a large loan amount to repay fully in a short 3 years (the term of a Prosper personal loan). With an interest rate of 25.45%, that equates to a $1,000 per month payment, which is large. Any bump in the road means that this borrower may choose not to repay this loan (in my experience, borrowers do not make partial payments, but rather stop paying entirely). Lenders can take some comfort in the fact that this borrower has a "public" personality via his blog, thus the public shaming he'd take by being late could be a nice incentive for him to make this loan his #1 priority.

So, what's the sum total of my analysis? The borrower is clearly an intelligent person with a great job in a high-demand area (e.g. if he does lose his job, his skills are in high demand). While the leverage is high, the risk of default of mitigated by the high interest rate being offered (25%+ at the start, but this could get bid down through the course of the auction). As part of a diversified Prosper portfolio, P2P-Loans.com does believe this is a loan worth bidding on and I will support it with a small bid once funds clear my Prosper account. If you are new to Prosper, you can get $25 of free cash for joining Prosper and winning a $50 bid on this loan. That makes it a no-brainer in my opinion.

Help, My Credit Score Just Fell Off A Cliff (and I didn't even do anything)!

As you may not know, Fair Isaac (what's so fair about them, I don't know) recently updated its FICO score formula and it is being rolled out by the three primary credit agencies. While there are many views on whether these changes are good or bad, the one certainty about all of this is that your credit score is probably going to change. Here's our quick and dirty on how this might affect you:

If your credit is currently being bolstered because you are an authorized user on your parents credit card account, you are probably going to get HAMMERED! One of the largest (and most negative) changes to the formula is the removal of the benefit you get from being on someone elses account as an authorized user. Some credit analysts belive as many of 25% of all Americans with credit could be negatively affected by this one change (that's about 40 million people whose credit score could fall). The good news is that it may take a number of months before all the credit card companies, banks, etc. begin to use this new score (so, get some new credit while you can - P2P-Loans.com has some great credit card offers if you are interested). Getting credit now (while you can still piggyback with daddy's good credit) will allow you to start building your own on-time credit file.

However, there are some positive changes to the scoring methodology as well. For example, the system treats a single large slip up (even as much as 90 days) as an “isolated delinquency” to individuals with a 10-year credit history. Routine late payments of less than 90 days will still damage your report but at least now a legitimate mistake won’t haunt you so severely.

Also under the new system, multiple credit inquiries in a short period of time won’t be so damaging to your credit score, as now they will be weighted less heavily in calculating the overall number.

Finally, the new system rewards borrowers who demonstrate the ability to stay on top of both revolving debt (credit cards, home equity lines of credit) and installment loans (Prosper Loans, student, auto or boat loans, mortgages). Even if you show a wide range of loans but a solid history of paying them on time, expect your score to jump up as well. Go figure, if you pay on time, you have a good score!

Just as a helpful refresher, here is what we do know about the FICO system (even though the exact numbers are closely guarded by Fair Isaac) and what the rough weighting is for certain types of credit data used:

- 35% — punctuality of payment in the past (only includes payments later than 30 days past due)
- 30% — the amount of debt, expressed as the ratio of current revolving debt (credit card balances, etc.) to total available revolving credit (credit limits)
- 15% — length of credit history
- 10% — types of credit used (installment, revolving, consumer finance)
- 10% — recent search for credit and/or amount of credit obtained recently

I Need Money (Don't We All) - Read On To Learn How to Get Some...

As you probably know by now, I tend to blog about things that I find curious, interesting or about P2P lending, Prosper, etc. Well, I recently came upon what I felt was a pretty useful collection of some of the best financial sites and tools on the web. So, naturally, I wanted to share it with my loyal fan base (thanks for reading, Mom!). Seriously, I've found that the best way to accumulate savings (and ultimately wealth) is to focus on living within your means and cutting a mean bargain when you make large purchases or other financial decisions (cars, homes, jobs, etc.). That's what I found so cool about these sites/tools.

The source of these links was CNN Money, but I added my own color commentary for your enjoyment.

Your financial life: Track it. Improve it.
New ways to keep tabs on your inflows and outflows can make a big difference to your bottom line. Did you know that saving $0.99 per day beginning when you are 25 years old will get you over $187,000 in cash when you retire (10% annual return assumed)!

Buying a new ride will never be the same
The new resources put you on more equal footing with car dealers. If you buy a car every 5 years (about average) and save $1,000 each time by using these tools, you will save over $100,000 between the ages of 25 and retirement (same 10% assumption)!

Where you can go for advice you can trust (really)
Before betting the farm on some hot new investment, head to these Web communities. Make sure you don't lose the nearly $300,000 I saved you above...=)

Create your own "network effect"
When searching for a new job, it's easier than ever to get on the inside track. Few things will be as important to your financial future as your job. Make sure you are paid what you are worth!

Get the lowest price on anything
Before you plunk down hard-earned cash, you can quickly see which stores are offering the best deals. Remember how much $0.99 per day is worth...?

Know your home's future
Is a neighborhood you're interested caught up in the housing bust? How do the schools rate? This information is a few clicks away.

Click your way to the right school
Get the latest stats and even take a virtual tour to find the college of your dreams. Don't waste your money on an average school. Do your homework (before and during school).

P2P Lending Grows in Popularity as Banks Slow Lending (Are Individual Lenders Suckers or Savvy?)

By now, you've certainly read about the credit crunch that has engulfed the world. Banks are running low on cash to lend and in some cases (such as Citigroup) our largest banks are dancing dangerously close to the fire having to rely on sovereign investment funds (can you say Saudi Arabia) to bail them out. But, with consumer and small business loans scarce, credit card companies reducing or canceling credit lines and banks refusing to write new home equity loans, what's a small business to do?

A recent Wall Street Journal article (see below) talks about how small business owners are turning to P2P Lending sites (such as Prosper, LendingClub, Virgin Money and Zopa to name a few) for capital. But, for lenders on Prosper, are we the suckers or the savvy investors by making these loans? The banks are likely turning away some pretty good credits and borrowers on P2P sites tend to pay a higher interest rate relative to a more traditional small business bank loan that might be backed by assets in the business or a personal guarantee by the business owner. At the same time, delinquency rates are very high at Prosper (upwards of 20%+ of funded loans in some months - visit LendingStats or Eric's Credit Community for details).

I published a blog posting on January 22, 2008, which summarizes my personal experience as a Prosper lender. My firm hope is that Prosper and the other P2P Lending sites will continue to be a good place to invest; however, the jury is still out on this one. P2P-Loans' future is counting on it!

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Where Either a Borrower Or a Lender Can Be Small-Business Owners Turn To Online Networks for Funds As Banks Tighten Credit
By JANE J. KIM

When Jeff Walsh wanted to refinance the small-business loan on his coin laundry, he didn't want to take a chance that his bank would reject his application. "I just bought a house in 2007 and was a little nervous about what the bank would say about my debt-to-income ratio."

Instead, the 31-year-old from Schaumburg, Ill., recently borrowed $22,500 on Prosper.com, an online lending network that matches individual borrowers and lenders. The interest rate on Mr. Walsh's loan: 10.25% -- several percentage points below what he says he would have had to pay at a bank.

HIGH FINANCE FOR THE MASSES

Read a Q&A with the founder of Prosper.com. As the credit crisis spurs traditional lenders to tighten credit standards and raise fees, more small-business owners and entrepreneurs are turning to so-called person-to-person lending networks -- with names like Prosper, LendingClub.com and Zopa.com -- to help keep their businesses going. The unsecured loans are tiny, usually no more than $25,000. But borrowers say they are able to get loans more quickly and with less paperwork than at a bank. And people with good credit are able to lock in lower rates -- often 8% to 12% -- than they would otherwise have to pay on credit cards or unsecured bank loans.

INDEPENDENT STREET BLOG

Have you used peer-to-peer lending? Read the latest post, and share your thoughts. Person-to-person lending is a small but fast-growing corner of the Web economy. New sites are jumping in, including Virgin Money USA, majority-owned by Sir Richard Branson's Virgin Group PLC. Roughly $100 million in new P-to-P loans was issued in the U.S. last year, a number that is expected to jump tenfold by 2010, according to Online Banking Report. Recently, some larger financial institutions have begun to take notice of P-to-P lending...

(article continued at WSJ.com)

Credit Card Delinquincies SOAR! Prosper Loans to Follow?

A recent report published by CardTrack.com shows that consumer credit card delinquencies have soared in the last few months. According to the report, delinquincies have reached 5.4%, up from 4.5% just 1 year ago. Not surprisingly, total credit card debt has increased a qhopping 315% since 1989 with the Federal Reserve estimating total consumer revolving debt of over $2.5 trillion (that's with a "T").

So, what does this mean to your Prosper loans? Well, naturally, I would fully expect to see DQs accelerate in the coming months. Of course, for those lenders that have been paying attention, this is on top of the already very high DQ rates on Prosper. For example, about 5.2% of 12-month old AA loans (the best Prime loans you can make on Prosper) are late on Prosper (this is nearly equal to all credit card DQs!). If you ventured into the A-rated loan category, nearly 10% of these loans are late (again, only loans that are 12 months old as of this post). B, C and D-rated loans get even worse at 13.4%, 20.7% and 23.3%, respectively.

One can only hope that Prosper will start performing more like the credit cards, which post a meager 5.4% DQ rate as of February 2008. Be well and visit us often.

Prosper Raises Borrower Fees

Prosper posted the following message on its blog on January 4, 2008 announcing that it has increased the fees borrowers will pay in order to close a loan on Prosper. Given the small loan amounts, Prosper had to make this move to remain financially viable, I believe. It's unfortunate that the cost of borrowing money is rising given the challenges that borrowers in the less than prime categories are facing (credit crunch, higher credit card fees, mortgage DQs, etc.), but I do understand that Prosper is running a business and needs to make these difficult decisions from time to time. It will be interesting to monitor Prosper's new loan volume going forward to determine if this change has an impact on the demand for loans in the affected borrower categories. Lendingstats is a good place to check on this data if you have an interest.

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Effective today, Prosper has increased the origination fee for borrowers. The rationale behind this increase is to enable us to better cover our administrative costs and bring our fees more in line with the market. We have endeavored to continue to keep the fees very straightforward for our borrowers.

The origination fee schedule for borrowers of first and second loans will be as follows:

AA 1.00% (no change)
A 2.00%
B 2.00%
C 3.00%
D 3.00%
E 3.00%
HR 3.00%

Therefore if you are a borrower and your loan is funded, you will be charged a percentage of the amount borrowed depending on your credit grade. This change will impact all listings created on or after January 4th, 2008.

Origination fees paid by existing borrowers and for listings that have already been created will not be impacted.