SHOCKING MORTGAGE REVELATION!!!

In news that will SHOCK the country, people that made poor financial decisions over the last 24 months continue to make poor financial decisions (and they are still not paying bills on things they still can't afford). In a Reuters article whose conclusion is just entirely too predictable, the government is reporting that borrowers that stopped paying their mortgages once, are doing so again!!! Shocking, I know.

OK, so that's my poor attempt at blogging sarcasm, but you get the point. Why would anyone expect "loan modifications" to be successful? Sure, they may help some fraction of the folks that are having a tough time and were legitimately scammed by predatory lenders, but the simple fact is that there were WAY TOO MANY people buying homes that should have never bought a home in the first place (most of them are not bad people, they just were not ready to take on the responsibility of owning a home). So, as I've predicted many times in the past, loan mods just won't work for most loans because the people that should have never bought a home in the first place still own a house they still can't really afford!!!

Since when did renting gain such a stigma? There is nothing wrong with renting a place and making it your home. We (the politicians especially) got a little caught up in this whole home ownership/american dream thing and we are now paying for it in the financial, real estate, business and every other market you can name. In what many of you may see as a bit of a stretch (but, I honestly believe it), Americans forgot that the American Dream revolves around EARNING things and not being given things (that whole sense of entitlement thing). What happened to saving for a 20% down payment before buying a house? If someone can work hard and save 20% (or even 10-15% fo that matter), they're not only putting a lot of "skin in the game" but they've also demonstrated financial management skills (i.e. they are likely to be very good credits). If we'd adhered to this very basic standard alone, we would not be in the mess that we are in! It sounded great that you could buy a house with only your good name and your word (stated income or "liar's" loans as they're now called), but it was all too obvious what would happen (people would stretch the truth...or simply lie to get what they wanted - a house they could not afford). Now, since we have not learned our lesson, let's give people something for nothing yet again - e.g. freebies to show them that defaulting on a loan ACTUALLY HAS A REWARD!!!!

So, let me summarize why this is such a silly policy:

1) people that should have never bought a house still own houses
2) the resultant homeowners STILL have no skin in the game (formerly known as a down payment); and, most importantly,
3) defaulting borrowers ARE BEING REWARDED for defaulting!

It's quite easy to see that people are going to continue to default until they stop getting freebies. I have several friends who are thinking of defaulting on their mortgages just so they can renegotiate with the bank! If this kind of silly policy continues, the downward cycle we are now in will only last longer and be more painful than it has already been. I really hope that does not happen. Wake up, Washington!!!

Let's wise up!

Housing Crisis Over? Mixed Data Suggests....

P2P-Loans.com has recently noticed a number of smart folks writing about the end of the housing crisis. In two separate articles in the WSJ ("Opinion: The Housing Crisis is Over" and "Is Housing Slump at a Bottom?"). These articles make very valid points with regard to housing starts, low interest rates, etc. What these articles fail to debate in any material fashion is that housing prices relative to disposable income are still extremely high!

This chart from Ned Davis Research (the line graph at the bottom of this page is most relevant) demonstrates that we remain at very high price levels relative to historical data. Ultimately, the value of housing is a function of affordability. When it's all said and done, this is the single most important factor that drives demand for new housing and the price of such housing. For example, the data in the chart suggest that in 2001 (yes, interest rates were in the sub 7% range for 30-year fixed mortgages then as well) the Median New Home Price / Disposable Income ratio was near its 30-year average, which is where it had been for the better part of 15 years. In fact, the ratio had been even lower before that, however this is likely due to the artificially high interest rates of the 1970's and early 1980's.

This dynamic has served to dramatically reduce demand for housing in conjunction with tougher lending standards (fewer buyer approved for new mortgages) and skitish buyers (when will prices stop falling). As a result, housing inventories have spiked to record highs. Accross the US, housing inventories are more than double typical levels, and are as high as 4-5 years worth of inventory (versus a long-term average of 5-6 months) in formerly hot markets such as Florida and California.
According to a recent post at Seeking Alpha, housing inventories are beginning to come down, but remain well above historical averages. Seeking Alpha points out that, at the current sales pace, inventories of new homes will be "back to normal" by the end of 2009. Simply put, we will be in a supply/demand imbalance for the next two years (and this is assuming that the market doesn't overshoot to the downside, which it's been known to do in prior busts - think about when many tech stocks were trading at less than cash value in 2003). The data is similar on the inventories of resales as well. In my estimation, this means we still have a ways to go before calling the end of the housing crisis. I hope I am wrong.

On a side note, the government is trying to push through a MASSIVE bailout program. Generally, when the government makes a move like this, they are too late to the party. Thus, this single fact alone could lead one to believe we are at the end of the housing crisis.

Tax Payer ALERT! The Gov't Wants To Bail Out Troubled Homeowners

Is there a tax-payer funded (err... "government sponsored") bailout coming for honeowners? Momentum appears to be building for a broad-based program to bail out folks that bought homes in the boom times and can no longer afford to make their payments (e.g. are approaching or are already in foreclosure proceedings). This has been a topic of much debate. For those that made smart, sound financial decisions (e.g. didn't borrow more than they could afford to pay back, and read the fine print on their mortgage documents, etc.), this seems like it might be unfair since the taxpayers will potentially be bailing out these folks. But, as the outline below reflects, the current debate in Congress revolves around structuring a compromise that enables any eventual program to pay for itself. P2P-Loans.com is encouraged by some of the provisions being discussed (especially the payment of insurance premiums to the FHA and a sharing in any equity gains to homeowners upon a sale). We would hope that the equity gain sharing is substantial and not a pittance given any gain will be made entirely on the backs of tax payers (errr...the "government-sponsored" program). Generally speaking, the government has a terrible track record on projects like this (they underestimate the total costs, botch the execution and mess up a market-based system that works pretty well in the long run).

Here is a summary (from an article at Money.com) of what's being debated (P2P-Loans.com will report back on this issue once a program is passed):

While critics worry that an FHA rescue plan could amount to a bailout, supporters say it's not since everyone involved - lenders, borrowers and mortgage investors - would make a sacrifice.

Lenders get 100% backing from the FHA if a loan goes south. In exchange, the lender takes a "haircut" - reducing the principal owed and converting adjustable-rate loans to fixed-rate mortgages.

Borrowers get to keep their homes, but they would pay a premium to the FHA for the mortgage insurance and they would have to give a small portion of their equity to the FHA when the house is sold. They would also have to show they can afford the newly refinanced loan.

Mortgage investors - while they would sacrifice some future income from loans that have been reduced - would have more confidence investing in the new loans since the refinanced loans will be affordable and the borrower therefore will be more likely to pay them back.

Forget Mailing Your Keys to The Bank: Live in Your Home Free (at least for a while)

I don't normally re-post blogs, but I found this posting from the WSJ and found it particularly interesting. In fact, I have some experience with this area as I know someone in my local market that has executed the home squatter strategy to near perfection over the last few years.

This person owns a second home (it's actually a condo on the beach) and has had foreclosure proceedings started on him on 3 different occasions. Each time, he's taken the bank for a "rent-free" ride for 9-12 months. During each of these processes, he negotiated a "new deal / payment plan" with the bank, which ended in dismissal of the foreclosure proceedings. The net result of his actions has been effectively free rent for nearly 3 years (e.g. no cash payments) on his second home since the back payments, interest and penalties/fees were simply added to his mortgage balance (which he may or may not make payments on going forward). I suspect he'll try this again in a few months, and maybe the bank will wise up (doubtful). Or, maybe he will just continue to live in the condo as long as he can continue to play this game (in reality, he cannot afford this second home without playing this game with his bank).

With so many folks upside down on their homes (their home is worth less than their mortgage balance), one might expect to hear about more of these cases going forward. Let's hope that the banks will show a little compassion since many folks in foreclosure today are not gaming the system (per the story above), but genuinely need their help to keep their families in their homes.

Here's the blog posting and a link to the blog (there are some interesting comments on the actual posting, so I encourage you to visit).

Why Walk Away? Mortgage ‘Squatters’ Stay in Their Homes
by Lauren Baier Kim

We’ve written about homeowners who are walking away from their homes instead of paying back their mortgages as home values fall. But why give up your house when you can continue living in it without paying a cent? That’s essentially what some people are doing, according to a recent post on the Big Picture blog.

The blog shares the observation of one South Florida developer, MW, who says that in “the very best neighborhoods of Florida,” owners of houses valued in excess of $2 million have ceased making mortgage payments and are essentially squatting in their luxury homes. And thanks to a backlog of foreclosure cases in the local courts, they may be able to live in their home for months, maybe even years, before the banks can take action (many have also quit paying property taxes and insurance, the post notes).

The post reminds us of a December Journal article written by Amir Efrati about a family in Cleveland who fought off foreclosure in the courts and continued to live in their home for 11 years without forking over a single mortgage payment. Ultimately, the bank foreclosed on the house, the family was evicted and the house was sold to another family, Mr. Efrati says.

There’s a similar tale on Bloomberg.com of a Boca Raton, Fla., resident who hasn’t paid his $1.5 million mortgage since 2002, but still has ownership of his home because the bank can’t prove that it owns the mortgage note. The article says that homeowners across the U.S. have seen foreclosure cases against them dismissed because of lenders’ inability to prove ownership of mortgages that have been pooled into securities and have changed hands multiple times, sometimes with poor documentation.

Of course, many people stay in their homes for a year or two while awaiting eviction. But with so many folks holding negative equity in their homes, should we expect to see more of this? — Lauren Baier Kim

Trouble with your Mortgage?

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Are you having trouble with your mortgage payment? Is your ARM about to reset placing you in a position where you won't be able to make your payments? P2P-Loans.com is happy to provide you with the following information, which may help you to save your home from foreclosure! Given the turmoil in the debt/mortgage markets and the talk of stricter legislation in Congress, banks are VERY willing to work with troubled borrowers to ensure that their loan remains good. All it takes is a simple phone call. Foreclosures are very expensive and banks will avoid them at nearly all costs. A simple phone call to your banks loan loss mitigation department is all it takes to learn if your bank will help you out of this tough situation. Your bank may be willing to restructure your loan, allow you to defer payments or make partial payments, among many other options they will consider. To help you with this process, below is among the most comprehensive list of banking contacts courtesy of http://www.loansafe.org. Just make a simple phone call and save your home and sleep better at night. If anyone has contact information to add to this list, please email me or post it in the comment field. Thanks for visiting P2P-Loans.com.

Lender/Servicer Loss Mitigation Phone Numbers & Contact Information

ABM AMRO Mortgage (800) 783-8900
Web: https://www.mortgage.com/C3/application.bus

Accredited Home Lenders(877) 683-4466

AMC Mortgage Services (Also handles loans originated by Ameriquest and Argent) (800) 211-6926
1600 McConnor Parkway
Schaumburg, IL 60173
Web: https://www.myamcloan.com/malwebapp/begin.do

American Home Mortgage Corp.(877) 304-3100*

Ameriquest Mortgage (Debt collection -- see AMC Mortgage Services) (800) 211-6926

Aurora Loan Services (Debt collection) (800) 550-0508
By Overnight Mail:
601 5th Avenue
Scottsbluff, NE 69361
Attn: Customer Service
By Regular Mail:
P.O. Box 1706
Scottsbluff, NE 69363
E-mail: ccnmail@alservices.com
Web: https://www.alservices.com/Consumer/UI/SSL/Authentication/Login.aspx?ReturnUrl=%2fConsumer%2fUI%2fSSL%2fServ icing%2fDefault.aspx


Avelo Mortgage LLC (866) 992-8356*

Bank of America(800) 846-2222

BB&T Mortgage (800) 827-3722*

AmTrust Bank (fka Ohio Savings Bank) (888) 696-4444

Beneficial (800) 333-5848

Central Pacific Bank (800) 342-8422*

Charter One (800) 234-6002

Chase (800) 446-8939
Chase Home Finance (800) 848-9136 (customer service) (858) 605-2181 (delinquency customer service)
Chase Home Finance-New Jersey(800) 446-8939*Chevy Chase Bank(800) 933-9100*
Web: https://chaseonline.chase.com/chaseonline/logon/sso_logon.jsp?fromLoc=ALL&LOB=COLLogon

Chase Manhattan Mortgage
(800) 446-8939 (Ohio Servicing Center)
(800) 526-0072 (Florida Servicing Center)
(800) 527-3040 x533 (Florida Servicing Center)

Chevy Chase Bank (800) 933-9100
Web: https://www.chevychasebank.com/htm/payment.html

Citi Financial Mortgage (800) 753-3673

Citimortgage (800) 283-7918

Countrywide (800) 262-4218
https://customers.countrywide.com/secure/FHAStart_login254.asp

Ditech (800) 852-0656 (800) 449-8582

Downey Financial Corp.(800) 824-6902, ext. 6696

Deutsche Bank National Call Number on Mortgage Statement

EMC 800-723-3004
P.O. Box 141358
Irving, TX 75014-1358
Web: https://www.emcmortgageservicing.com/ccn/ccnsecurity.asp

EverBank (800) 669-7724 ext. 4730

Equity One (Debt collection) (866) 361-3460

First Horizon Home Loans (800) 489-2966*

Fifth Third Bank (800) 375-1745 Option 3

First Merit Bank (888) 728-9931

Flagstar Bank (800) 968-7700, ext. 9780

Fremont Investment & Loan (866) 484-0291

GMAC Mortgage (800) 850-4622

GreenPoint Mortgage Funding (800) 784-5566, ext. 5383*

Green Tree (877) 816-9125

Homecomings Financial (800) 850-4622*

HomeEq Mortgage Servicing ( Debt collection) (866) 822-1471

Household Finance (A HSBC Co.) (800) 333-5848

Household Mortgage (800) 333-4489

HSBC Mortgage (800) 338-6441
Default Resolution Team (if long term problem)
2929 Walden Avenue
Depew, NY 14043
(888) 648-3124 Loss Mit
(732) 352-7519 Fax
Web: http://us.hsbc.com/personal/mortgage/existing/difficulties.asp

Huntington National Bank (800) 323-4695

Indymac Bank (877) 736-5556
C/O Loan Resolution Department
P.O Box 7014
Pasadena, CA 91107
(Monday - Friday 6:15am-7:15pm. (Pacific Time))
Web: https://www.indymacbank.com/contactus/loanResolution.asp

Irwin Mortgage (888) 218-1988
P.O Box 7014
Pasadena, CA 91107
Web: https://www.irwinmortgage.com/wps/portal/!ut/p/cxml/04_Sj9SPykssy0xPLMnMz0vM0Y_QjzKLN4g3sdAvyHZUBAAqwx 9c
E-mail: deliquency.prevention@irwinmortgage.com

James B. Nutter & Company (800) 315-7334

Key Bank (800) 422-2442

LaSalle National Bank (800) 783-8900

Litton Loan Servicing (800) 999-8501 or (800) 548-8665
Fax (713) 966-8820
4828 Loop Central Drive
Houston, Texas 77081-2226
Web: https://www.littonloan.com/index.asp

Loss Mitigation Department Hours:
Monday Eastern: 9 a.m. - 7 p.m. Central:8 a.m. - 6 p.m. Mountain:7 a.m. - 5 p.m. Pacific:6 a.m. - 4 p.m.
Tuesday-Thursday Eastern:9 a.m. - 9 p.m. Central:8 a.m. - 8 p.m. Mountain:7 a.m. - 7 p.m. Pacific:6 a.m. - 6 p.m.
Friday Eastern:10 a.m. - 6 p.m. Central:9 a.m. - 5 p.m. Mountain:8 a.m. - 4 p.m. Pacific:7 a.m. - 3 p.m.
Default Counseling Department representatives are also available most weekends on Saturday from 8 a.m. to 12 p.m. and Sunday from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. (CST).

Midland Mortgage (800) 552-3000 or (800) 654-4566
Web: https://www.mymidlandmortgage.com/MyMortgage/Login/Login.asp

Mortgage Lenders Network (800) 691-0129
E-mail: customerservice@mlnusa.com
Web: http://www.mlnusa.com/customers/info_credithelp.asp

Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems (888) 679-6377

National City (800) 367-9305, Ext. 53221 or (800) 523-8654
Attention: Homeowner's Assistance
3232 Newmark Dr.
Miamisburg, Ohio 45342
(8AM-10:30PM ET, Monday - Thursday)
(8AM-5PM ET, Friday)
(8AM-Noon, Saturday)
Web: http://www.nationalcitymortgage.com/service_assistance.asp

Nationwide Advantage Mortgage Company (800) 356-3442, ext. 6002*

NationStar Mortgage (888) 850-9398* Press 0 for operator

New Century Financial Now Carrington Mortgage Services (800) 790-9502 or (877) 206-9904
(6:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. Pacific Time, Monday - Thursday)
(6:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. Pacific Time, Friday)
Web: https://myloan.newcentury.com/webapps/servicing/myloans/index.do

NovaStar Mortgage Loan Resolution Department (888) 743-0774 Non-English: (888) 743-0774, ext. 4523

Ocwen Federal Bank (800) 746-2936 or (877) 596-8560
Web: http://www.ocwencustomers.com/csc_fa.cfm

Attention: Financial Information
12650 Ingenuity Drive
Orlando, Florida 32826
or
Ocwen Financial Corporation
1661 Worthington Rd., Suite 100
West Palm Beach, Florida 33409
Phone: 877-226-2936

For serving Ocwen with legal process, please send to their registered agent:
Corporation Service Company
2711 Centerville Road, Suite 400
Wilmington, DE 19808
Phone: 561-682-8000, x8386

Option One (866) 711-1962 or (888) 275-2648
Web: http://www.oomc.com/servicing/servicing_baifaqs.asp

PHH Mortgage (Formerly Cendant) (800) 257-0460
For borrowers facing possible delinquency: (800) 330-0423*
For borrowers in the foreclosure process: (800) 750-2518
Web: http://www.phhmortgage.com

ResMae Mortgage Corp.(877) 473-7623, ext. 5944

Saxon (800) 665-7367

Select Portfolio Servicing (888) 818-6032
Fax: (801) 293-3936
Loan Resolution Department
P.O. Box 65250
Salt Lake City, UT 84165-0250
(Monday - Thursday 10:00 a.m. - 10:00 p.m. EST)
(Friday 10:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. EST)
(Saturday 9:00 a.m. - 1:00 p.m. EST)
Web: http://www.spservicing.com/services/customer/loanresolution.htm

SkyBank (800) 290-3359

Sun Trust Mortgage (800) 634-7928
PO Box 26149
Richmond, VA 23260-6149
Mail Code RVW 3003
Web: https://www.suntrustmortgage.com/generalquestions.asp#

Third Federal Savings (888) 844-7333

US Bank (800) 365-7900

Wachovia Bank of Delaware (866) 642-8608

Washington Mutual (866) 926-8937 or (888) 453-3102 or (800) 478-0036 or (800) 254-3677

Waterfirld Mortgage (800) 957-7245
Fax: (260) 459-5390
c/o Loss Mitigation Dept.
7500 W. Jefferson Blvd.
Fort Wayne, IN 46804
(7 am – 10 pm EST Monday – Thursday)
(7 am – 9 pm EST Fridays)
(8 am – 2 pm EST Saturdays)
E-Mail: saveyourhome@waterfield.com
Web: http://www.waterfield.com/scripts/cgiip.exe/WService=wfg/pub/borrowerservices/delqasst

Wells Fargo (877) 216-8448 or (866) 261-5642 or (800)766-0987 or (800) 678-7986 for payment assistance
Borrower Counseling Services
Monday - Friday 8:00 a.m. - 9:00 p.m., CT
Saturday 9:00 a.m. - 2:00 p.m., CT
Web: https://www.wellsfargo.com/mortgage/account

Wendover Financial Services Corporation (800) 934-1081 or (800) 436-1022
Web: http://www.wendover.com/borrowers.html

Wilshire Credit Corporation (888) 502-0100
P.O. Box 8517
Portland, OR 97207-8517
From 6 a.m. to 5 p.m. (Pacific time) Monday through Friday
Web: http://www.wfsg.com/borrower/borrower.aspx

*No direct line to the loss mitigation or loan modification department. But I am working on it

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This posting is courtesy of http://www.loansafe.org. Thank you, Moe.